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ProtectionSchemes
[Author's note: after spending half of the past season as

ProtectionSchemes
[Author's note: after spending half of the past season as

 a Sens blogger that no one read until the site went on permanent hiatus, it's been a several months since I've written an article, so bear with me if this goes off the rails a bit….]Like almost every die-hard hockey fan, I've read dozens (if not hundreds) of articles about the upcoming expansion draft and the various options the Senators and other teams have for protecting their players from "losing them for nothing" to new team in Las Vegas. All of these schemes seem to focus on protecting as many players as possible and denying the Golden Knights anyone of real value.This idea shouldn't be and isn't surprising. NHL general managers are not supposed to be in the business of doing favours for each other. They're supposed to be trying to screw each other over as much as possible so that it's their team hoisting the Stanley Cup in June rather than anyone else's.Of course, things don't entirely work that way, as evidenced by the fact that not a single offer sheet has been given to a restricted free agent in years. But, it's still the general idea that GMs are supposed to be in it only for themselves and their teams.Nonetheless, it occurs to me that many GMs in the league are almost certainly going to approach the upcoming expansion draft in the wrong way and https://www.ottawafansstore.com/Ray_Emery_T_shirt-11 , in fact, could be doing their teams a major disservice with their approach.Most teams will almost certainly choose the 7-3-1 protection scheme to protect the greatest number of their players. The reasoning will be that they have invested heavily in these players, so letting a good player go to Las Vegas will be seen as bad asset management. But, what they're forgetting is that the Commissioner has already guaranteed that they're going to lose an NHL calibre player in this draft because of the rules he instituted and the fallout from those rules. So, by default Jacob Bernard-Docker Face Mask , they're off the hook with respect to that aspect of "asset management" Zach Sanford Pillow Cover .What they are on the hook for, though, is making sure that the Golden Knights don't get any of their most valuable assets and those might not be the players that one automatically thinks of when looking at any of the teams' rosters.Everyone learned a valuable lesson last June that sheds light on what I'm getting at here. On the same dayhell, within the same half hourtwo blockbuster trades and one major free agent signing were announced:PK Subban was sent to Nashville for Shea WeberTaylor Hall went to New Jersey in exchange for Adam LarssonSteven Stamkos re-signed for less than expected in TampaBesides being a typically hilarious bit of bad timing for the league (really, how do the three biggest moves of the off-season happen simultaneously?), what these moves also established was the relative value of assets in the league today. Want a superstar right-shot defenceman in a one-for-one trade? You're going to need to send a superstar right-shot defenceman back. Don't have one of those? Well, it's going to cost you a superstar forward just to get an (at best) average first pairing right-shot defenceman. And, if you are a superstar forward looking for a new contract, don't expect to break the bank, because there is a limit to your value to the team.What all of this illuminates is that a right-shot defenceman is the most valuable asset that a general manager can have right now. Make that a fluid-skating right-shot defenceman with puck-moving skills and you can essentially name your price if you decide to put him on the market.So, what does this have to do with the expansion draft? Well, let's take the Senators as our example. They almost certainly will use the 7-3-1 protection scheme and will use the rationale of maximizing their assets to justify it. Moreover, there's been lots of talk of the team sending an additional asset to Las Vegas in an attempt to provide additional protection for Marc Methot, who is widely considered the odd man out among the team's top four defenders when it comes to expansion draft protection.One name that's rarely discussed as an asset to protect, is Chris Wideman. Now, Wideman was the team's fifth or sixth defenceman this past season, so why would I argue that he's not only more valuable to the team than Methot, but also most of the team's forwards, too?If you guessed it's because he's a right-shot defenceman, you win a prize! (You don't really win a prize. Please don't email me demanding a prize. There is no prize.)If the Senators expose Wideman, I'd argue they risk the Golden Knights taking one of their most valuable assets. Look at Cody Ceci as a model for what I mean. By virtually all measures, Ceci was terrible last season. He scored two goals all season and didn't break 20 points despite substantial power play time, including recording just a single assist in 19 playoff games. He was well below team rates in possession metrics, though he did start the majority of his shifts in the defensive zone. Even in the darling stat of the old school set, plus-minus, he was -11 for the regular season and -7 in the playoffs. And, yet, there are still lots of trade rumours swirling around Cody Ceci. As a strong-skating right-shot defenceman with some offensive upside, he remains a valuable asset despite less-than-stellar play.Even if the team doesn't choose Wideman over Methot (and, I totally understand that logic, for the record), the equation then becomes Methot over Derrick Brassard or Zack Smith or Ryan Dzingel https://www.ottawafansstore.com/Drake_Batherson_T_shirt-28 . (I'm assuming, like pretty much everyone else not named Don Brennan, that Bobby Ryan being exposed is a given.) See, I presume that in a 4-4-1 arrangement, the team will protect Kyle Turris, Mark Stone, Mike Hoffman, and JG Pageau. Pageau isn't a lock, but if you see the first three on that list as the forward core, Pageau is likely the most attractive asset after them for his combination of skill, experience, and affordability. If that's how the Senators see it, too, that leaves the other three forwards mentioned above as the most attractive forwards from which Las Vegas has to choose.But, there's several things to keep in mind in this instance:Las Vegas can only select one player from Ottawa; so, obviously, the players that don't get chosen remain with the team. That means even if the Golden Knights pluck… let's say, Brassard… from the Senators, the team still has Smith, Dzingel, all the players that were protected and all the remaining players that were not. Plus, they are now free of Brassard's $5 million salary – money which can be used to replace his production (probably more affordably).Even if Ottawa protects four defencemen, there will still be Mark Borowiecki, Freddy Claesson, and whoever isn't protected between Methot and Wideman on the list of available players. Among them, even Borowiecki, who's likely seen as the least talented, might have more value as a solid defensive defenceman with "intangibles" than any of Ottawa's forwards, depending on the viewpoint of McPhee when he's making his selections.All of this goes back to my very first point: Ottawa, like every team in the league, will lose a good player "for nothing" on June 21. It behooves the Senators to make sure that the players they protect are the most valuable of their assets, in turn protecting their future success.


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